RI Department of Labor and Training

Third Quarter Employment Data Top Estimates by 4,900

February 19, 2013

A recent analysis of tax data from 32,000 businesses shows that Rhode Island job growth exceeded original employment estimates for the third quarter of 2012 by 4,900 jobs, according to the RI Department of Labor and Training (DLT).

The new DLT-produced estimate for Rhode Island-based jobs as of September 2012 is 464,400, up 4,900 from the official September 2012 estimate, which was based on a monthly survey of 1,700 representative businesses. Because the tax data is derived from a virtual census of employers and more recent data is used, the quarterly estimates are considered to have a smaller margin of error than the monthly estimates. The new DLT September 2012 estimate also shows an over-the-year job gain of 4,700, while the official estimate predicted an over-the-year job loss of 200.

Third quarter tax data also shows significant increases in job counts in the following industry sectors:

  • Professional & Business Services—revised to 56,000 jobs, up 2,600 (4.9%) from earlier estimates.
  • Retail Trade—revised to 47,000 jobs, up 2,100 (4.7%) from earlier estimates.
  • Other Services—revised to 22,700 jobs, up 1,400 (6.6%) from earlier estimates. (The Other Services category includes establishments engaged in providing services not provided for elsewhere in the NAICS classification system, such as equipment and machinery repair, personal care services, and domestic help.
  • Health Care & Social Assistance—revised to 78,300 jobs, up 1,100 (1.4%) from earlier estimates

Tax data also shows significant decreases in job estimates for the following sectors:

  • Educational Services (private sector only)—revised to 25,000 jobs, down 1,100
    (-4.2%) from earlier estimates.
  • Manufacturing—revised to 39,600 jobs, down 1,000 (-2.5%) from earlier estimates.
  • Information—revised to 9,300 jobs, down 1,000 (-9.7%) from earlier estimates

Once a year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the latest four quarters of tax data to revise a full year’s worth of survey-based employment estimates for all states. The 2012 revisions for Rhode Island are scheduled for release on March 1, 2012.

The RI Department of Labor and Training has chosen to release its own revisions on a quarterly basis, to better track the progress of the economic recovery. 

Q3 2012 Employment Data, page 2                      EMBARGOED UNTIL FEB. 19
TABLE 1: Projected Revision in September 2012 Job Numbers
In thousands
Previous New tax data-based estimates, calculated in February 2013  Projected
survey-based estimates, Revision
 calculated in Sept. 2012
Total Jobs 459.5 464.4 4.9
Mining & Logging 0.2 0.2 0
Construction 16.5 15.6 -0.9
Manufacturing 40.6 39.6 -1
Retail Trade 44.9 47 2.1
Wholesale Trade 16.4 16.8 0.4
Transportation & Utilities 10.9 10.9 0
Information 10.3 9.3 -1
Financial Activities 30.9 30.9 0
Professional & Business Services 53.4 56 2.6
Educational Services 26.1 25 -1.1
Health Care & Social Assistance 77.2 78.3 1.1
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 7.4 7.4 0
Accommodation & Food  44.1 44.5 0.4
Other Services 21.3 22.7 1.4
Total Government 59.3 60.2 0.9
Source: RI Department of Labor and Training, Labor Market Information Unit, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) and Current Employment Statistics (CES) data, using methodology developed by the University of Massachusetts. 




ABOUT DLT: The RI Department of Labor and Training offers employment services, educational services and economic opportunity to both individuals and employers. DLT protects Rhode Island’s workforce by enforcing labor laws, prevailing wage rates and workplace health and safety standards. The department also provides temporary income support to unemployed and temporarily disabled workers. For more information on the programs and services available to all Rhode Islanders, please call the RI Department of Labor and Training at (401) 462-8000 or visit the web site at www.dlt.ri.gov